Three Fences, Three Years, One Narrow Path
I was threading a canoe through a gap between two rocks last summer. The current pulled left. The rocks sat close. You don't power through a gap like that. You read the water. You aim small. You let the river do most of the work.
That's how I think about the next three tax years.
A couple I know. Both 68. Retired. $1.2 million sitting in a traditional IRA. No earned income. They want to move that money into a Roth before the government starts dragging it out for them. The question is how much they can move each year without tripping a wire.
The answer is about $147,000. At under eight cents on the dollar.
But only if they see the three fences.
Most people heard that the old "convert before 2026 or the rates go up" panic is dead. The tax bill Congress passed this summer made the brackets permanent. So folks walked away from Roth conversions. That was the wrong move. The brackets stayed flat. But something new showed up that almost nobody is stacking together.
The first fence is a gift. That bill created a new $6,000 deduction for anyone 65 or older. For a married couple, that's $12,000. It piles on top of everything else.
In 2026, this couple already gets $32,200 in standard deductions. Each spouse picks up a $1,650 age bonus for being over 65. Toss the new $12,000 senior piece on the pile. The whole stack hits $47,500. That much income vanishes before the IRS counts a dime.
The new $12,000 piece stacks on the standard deduction. It doesn't shrink your gross income. Medicare still watches that number. But keep the gross below the phaseout line and the full deduction holds.
But the new deduction starts disappearing once your income crosses $150,000 as a couple. You lose six cents of it for every dollar above that mark. So you keep your income at or below $150,000. That's fence one.
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Fence two is the Medicare cliff. They call it IRMAA. If your gross income crosses $218,000 as a couple, Medicare hits you with a surcharge of $2,297 a year. Not a slope. A cliff. One dollar over and the full bill lands on both spouses.
The surcharge shows up two years later. A 2026 conversion hits your 2028 premiums. And you can't take it back. The IRS killed the undo option in 2018. You can't appeal it either. A Roth conversion doesn't count as a life change on the Medicare form. Once you file, the bill is locked.
Fence three is the bracket wall. In 2026, the 12% bracket for a married couple ends at $100,800 of taxable income. One dollar past that and the next chunk gets taxed at 22%. Almost double.
Now stack it. You convert $147,000. The $47,500 deduction stack wipes out the first layer. About $99,500 lands in taxable income. Just inside the 12% bracket. Your gross income stays under $150,000, so the full senior deduction holds. You sit below the $218,000 Medicare cliff. No surcharge. No surprise bill two years out.
Total tax on that $147,000 comes in around $11,400. Less than eight cents on every dollar moved from a taxable bucket to a tax-free one. That's money the IRS can't touch again.
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Now the clock. That $12,000 senior deduction expires after 2028. Three tax years. 2026. 2027. 2028. After that the stack drops and the corridor shrinks.
And at 73, the IRS stops asking. Required minimum distributions kick in. On a $1.2 million IRA the first year's pull is about $45,000. That's taxable income you didn't choose. It sits on the pile whether you need it or not. Every dollar of forced withdrawal gets taxed on the government's schedule instead of yours.
Three conversions at $147,000 move $441,000 into a Roth. At under eight percent. Before the fences close in. Before the RMDs start dragging money into the open.
I keep thinking about that canoe. The rocks didn't move. The current didn't care what I wanted. I just had to read the gap and aim small.
The gap is open. It won't stay that way.


